self-driving cars – Enviro Updates

Paris Marx, MEDIUM

For the past several years, Silicon Valley’s tech titans have been telling us that autonomous vehicles will become the future of urban mobility. No longer will we have to drive personal vehicles or even walk the “last mile” from transit stops to our final destinations — pods piloted by computers will whisk us wherever we want to go at minimal cost.

Our most ambitious technologists even claim that mass transit is outdated — it’s dirty, scary, and doesn’t get you to your final destination. Autonomous vehicles will make “individualized” transportation accessible to all — space limitations of dense urban cores be damned!

Can you seriously see us trying to cram all the pedestrians of New York City, or almost any major city around the world, into autonomous pods without creating the worst gridlock we’ve ever seen? It’s a hilarious proposal, but some technologists still believe it. (Remember, Elon Musk wants to build a ton of tunnels below Los Angeles for this exact reason.)

The truth is, autonomous vehicles will probably not dominate the streets of the future. Tech boosters’ blind fantasies are finally being revealed for the pipe dreams they really are. Self-driving cars aren’t imminent, the technology isn’t there yet. And while the reality of being sold a lie leaves some discouraged, a much more exciting vision of the future of mobility is emerging. Instead of streets hostile to anyone not in a metal box weighing a ton or two, we may see people reclaiming roadways for themselves.

The fatal crash of a self-driving Uber that killed a pedestrian as she crossed a Tempe, Arizona, street in March impacted the industry enormously. Ambitious visions were replaced by cautious statements about the prospects of autonomous technology. For once, it seemed industry leaders were coming to terms with the realities of a technology that they’d lost touch with after several years of building hype.

Peter Calthorpe and Jerry Walters, URBANLAND

Every new transportation technology affects the geography of communities and the structure of people’s lives. Autonomous vehicles (AVs) are one such technology. Just as the freeway system or the streetcar network shaped past cities and lifestyles, AVs will remake the metropolis once again. The question is how and with what unintended consequences? As with most technology, the answer turns on how the technology is used.

Many people believe that shifting to AVs will eliminate vehicles from roads and offer myriad benefits, including improved traffic flow, fewer traffic accidents, and enhanced mobility for the handicapped, elderly, and children. With AVs, people would free themselves from parking hassles, congestion, and many financial and environmental costs. Unfortunately, reaching this outcome is not that simple.

One thing is certain: zero- or single-occupant vehicles—even with AV technology—are a bad thing. They cause congestion, eat up energy, exacerbate sprawl, and emit more carbon per passenger mile. Surprisingly, even AV taxis carrying three passengers can generate more miles because of distant pickups and roaming as they await passengers. And the promise of efficient flow and energy savings can only be delivered in exclusive areas free of non-autonomous vehicles. The best of AV technology is in shared vehicles and a new generation of transit options—AVs used on dedicated lanes or in car-free districts with multiple passengers as an inherent option.

The reality is that some forms of AV could actually make things worse. The convenience of AVs could result in more miles traveled—up to 35 percent more for personal AVs and an amazing 90 percent more for single-passenger AV taxis, according to Urban Mobility: System Upgrade, a 2014 study by the International Transit Forum (ITF) and the Corporate Partnership Board (CPB). This increase is the result of riders acquiring a greater tolerance for long commutes, and vehicles running “deadhead” trips to look for new riders or cheap parking and running errands. The only thing worse than a single-occupant vehicle is a zero-occupant vehicle (ZOV).

With private AVs on the road, the U.S. vehicle-miles traveled (VMT) total is expected to increase by 2 trillion to 3 trillion miles over the next 30 years, according to author calculations based on several data sources—more than five times the increase over the past 30 years when auto use rose dramatically due to suburbanization, women entering the workforce, and inexpensive gasoline. Higher VMT means more road use and, therefore, more congestion and carbon emissions.

These outcomes are not inevitable. Indeed, the impact of AVs on a region will depend on many factors, one of the most important being how AVs are used.

Environmental Center of Sonoma County

Tag: self-driving cars

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